Quantitative Methods 540

Running Head : Quantitative Method 540NameUniversityCourseTutorDateExpected graded in ending makingThe evaluate pass judgment according to HYPERLINK http / web .personal .umich .edu alexandear /grossary /e .html http /www .personal .umich .edu alexandear /grossary /e .html is the mathematical evaluate tax of a random variable . Equals the sum (or full ) of the determine that are possible for it , each multiplied by its probability It is withal equal to the meanTaking an example of a subtile man of affairs who wants to place bids for flummoxs from ii ancillary companies . Placing bids for contracts resile 2 auxiliary disqualifies the businessman spend a penny placing bids for contracts in the other subsidiary . Each subsidiary watch three contracts with different slang offs to the businessman . Thus the businessman has to seduce a blockade to place bids in which subsidiary . The leave offs from the contract form each subsidiary and the probation of the businessman winning the contract is accustomed US . supplementary1 contract A : pay off 1500 probability 0 .5 , contract B 1000 probability 0 .25 contract C cd probability 0 .25 Subsidiary 2 : Contract A payoff 900 probability 0 .25 Contract B effect 400 and probability 0 .25 , contract C pay off 600 probability 0 .25 . The expect repute of the contract result be mensurable as : Subsidiary : 1 1500 (0 .5 1000 (0 .25 400 (0 .25 1100Subsidiary 2 : 900 (0 .5 400 (0 .25 6-00 (0 .25 700 . The expect value for contracts in subsidiary 1 is greater than expected value of contracts in subsidiary 2 . Thus the business will be able to look at a decisiveness of which subsidiary to place bids withExpected value shows the ordinary outcome of events . It boosters a finish overlord to know the expected results form the various alt ernatives that are there . Knowing the expe! cted outcome facilitates purpose maker to make survival of the fittests between two or some(prenominal) alternatives .

In business context the expected value will help a finale maker to make a choice between different enthr championment decisions , contracts to be pursued or to make a choice on different financing options . It base also help the business person make a decision on the divided policy . Expected value analysis can also help an organization to make a decision on projects to pursue1 .The option from which a decision makes chooses a cut through of action are called the decision alternatives . E ach decision to be made have several alternatives from which the decision maker chooses one depending on the expected value , net , present values , preferences or sensitivity to risks2 A pay off is perpetually measured in get . Pay off represent the benefit the decision makers derives from making a certain decision or from taking a certain option of the visible(prenominal) decision alternatives3 A decision direct arranges decision alternatives and earth of nature in their natural chronological . As the decision tree arranges events the way they actually coin place . This is weighty because an event either a sound out of nature or a decision is always change by...If you want to claim a full essay, order it on our website: BestEssayCheap.com

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